Holiday Season Consumer Behavior Insights Statistics 2026: Budgets, AI and Deals

In the US, 2025 holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 grew 4.1%, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF), and Deloitte expects an increase of 4.0% to 4.8% during the November 2026 through January 2027 period. These holiday season consumer behavior insights track what shoppers planned, what they actually spent, and where the coming season is heading.

Planned budgets and real receipts rarely line up. Americans now estimate they will spend an average of $778 on Christmas or other holiday gifts, down $229 from October’s $1,007, Gallup found in its November poll, yet sales still grew. 29% of consumers plan to use AI as part of their holiday shopping experience, up from 22% last year, according to PwC, but just 4% expect to purchase gifts through AI tools.

Key Takeaways

• 2025 holiday sales grew 4.1%, against NRF’s forecast that holiday sales would increase between 3.7% and 4.2%.
• The $229 midseason decline in planned gift spending is the largest Gallup has recorded, surpassing the $185 drop seen during the 2008 global financial crisis.
• Generation Z planned to spend 34% less than last year in Deloitte’s survey, yet Gen Z actually spent nearly 21% more than last year during the holiday season, according to PwC receipt analysis.
• 60% expect to purchase gifts in-store, compared with just 4% through AI tools.
• Online sales of refrigerators and freezers were up 1,700% on Cyber Monday compared to average spending levels in October 2025, while electronics and appliance stores were down 0.09% year over year unadjusted in December.
• High-income households’ share of spend jumped nearly seven points from 31.7% of total holiday spend in 2024 to 38.5% in 2025.
• Over a third (37%) racked up holiday debt, averaging $1,223.

Editor’s Choice

• Holiday retail sales forecast: $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion during the November 2026 through January 2027 period, according to Deloitte.
• Online holiday spending: $257.8 billion online from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, up 6.8% year-over-year, according to Adobe.
• Thanksgiving weekend shoppers: a record 202.9 million consumers shopped during the five-day holiday weekend from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday.
• Global online holiday sales: record-breaking online sales of $1.29 trillion globally and $294 billion in the United States, according to Salesforce.
• Cyber Monday online spend: $14.25 billion in online spend, up 7.1% YoY.
• Seasonal hiring plan: NRF expects retailers to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers.

Holiday Season Consumer Behavior Insights: Sales Growth in 2025 and 2026

Compiled from 49 cited source excerpts: 19 Tier 1 (company newsrooms, press releases, and US Census Bureau data), 26 Tier 2 (research firms and industry bodies), and 4 Tier 3 (one company blog). Source dates run from October 2025 to September 2026. Only published primary data qualified: forecasts, card and receipt tracking, and named surveys. Figures are reviewed on a rolling basis and updated when sources publish new editions.

• December’s numbers brought total 2025 sales, as calculated by the Retail Monitor, to an increase of 4.93% over 2024.
• Total retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, were up 3.54% unadjusted year over year in December, compared with 4.53% year over year in November.
• Retail sales between November 2025 and January 2026 totaled $1.63 trillion according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
• E-commerce sales between November 2025 and January 2026 grew 7.5%, totaling an estimated $294 billion.
• Deloitte forecasts e-commerce sales between $316.1 billion and $318.9 billion this season.
• DPI is projected to grow between 4.5% and 5.2% during the holiday season, which Deloitte believes to be a strong predictor of retail and e-commerce sales.
• Bain projects that more than half of the nominal sales growth will come from higher inflation.
• KPMG estimated that holiday retail sales added 3.6% compared to a year ago, falling short of the National Retail Federation’s projection of 3.7% to 4.2%.
• 2024 holiday sales rose 4.3% over 2023 to reach $976.1 billion.

Source: NRF, Deloitte, Mastercard, KPMG, Bain & Company, 2025 and 2026

Worth noting: Mastercard SpendingPulse measured U.S. retail sales excluding automotive up 3.9% year over year from November 1 through December 21, while Bain recorded a 3.5% YoY rise in the 2025 holiday season. The spread comes from method: card data, Census surveys and partial-season windows each measure a different slice of the same shopping.

How Much Consumers Plan to Spend This Holiday Season

• Holiday gift spending is projected to dip just 2% from last year, even as consumer confidence fell 18.5% YoY, according to PwC.
• On average, consumers expect to spend $708 on gifts this year, and households with children expect to spend more ($875), according to PwC.
• The University of Michigan’s index fell from 60.7 in June 2025 to 49.5 in June 2026 when the survey was fielded.
• Eight in ten consumers plan to adopt a budgeting strategy this season.
• NRF’s survey found consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on average this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations, and other seasonal items; the amount is the second-highest in the survey’s 23-year history and falls only 1.3% short of last year’s record of $901.99.
• Out of the total, $627.93 will go to gifts for family and friends and $262.56 will be used on seasonal items like food or candy, decorations, and greeting cards.
• On average, shoppers expect to spend $1,595, down 10% from 2024, according to Deloitte’s prior-season survey, and 57% anticipate a weaker economy next year.
• The share of consumers planning to travel over the winter holidays is holding relatively steady at 40% in 2026 versus 44% in 2025, and 17% are still undecided.
• A third of those with travel plans are skipping the plane ticket, 38% are booking budget or midrange hotels, and 35% plan to stay with friends or family rather than pay for lodging at all.

Recent Developments

• September 2026 (Deloitte): E-commerce is forecast to grow 7.5% and 8.4% year-over-year during the 2026 to 2027 holiday season, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast.
• September 2026 (PwC): PwC’s Holiday Outlook found that the proportion drawn to nostalgic, screen-free gifts climbs to 78% among Gen Z.
• September 2026 (Bain): Bain forecasts that nonstore retail sales will grow 9% YoY, generating 60% of overall sales growth, up from 50% last year, while in-store sales grow 2.5% YoY.
• August 2026: In its quarterly retail e-commerce report, U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the second quarter of 2026 were $340.2 billion, an increase of 12.2% from the second quarter of 2025, and accounted for 17.1% of total sales.
• July 2026: Salesforce reported that consumer reliance on AI assistants as the first stop when shopping grew 200% in just one year, from May 2025 to May 2026.

Planned Holiday Budgets vs Actual Spending

• About a third (31%) anticipate spending up to $499, 18% say they will spend between $500 and $999, and 37% predict spending $1,000 or more, according to Gallup’s October poll.
• Gallup’s average planned gift budget fell from $1,007 in October 2025 to $778 in November 2025, after $1,014 in October 2024.
• 56% say they’ll spend about the same as they did the prior year, 19% think they’ll spend more, and 23% say they’ll spend less.
• At least 86% of consumers plan to buy gifts this year.
• Consumers often trim their holiday spending plans as the season progresses, including by more than $40 in 11 of the 19 years since 2006, and it has only increased by at least $40 in four.
• PwC’s receipt analysis called this say vs. do gap common among Gen Z.
• PwC also notes that consumers have a track record of underestimating their own generosity, and that in past years, actual holiday spending has consistently landed higher than early forecasts suggested.
• 2025 holiday sales grew 4.1% from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, landing near the top of NRF’s forecast of a 3.7% to 4.2% increase.

Key finding: Both high- and low-income Americans have pulled back considerably in their intended spending on gifts since October, while middle-income earners’ estimate is about the same, Gallup reported. Set against a season that still grew, the poll shows how much of a holiday budget gets decided at the register rather than in October.

Holiday Spending by Generation

• Gen X still holds the largest share of holiday spend at 34.4%, followed closely by baby boomers at 33.7%, while millennials account for 26.3% and Gen Z just 5.6%, per PwC’s receipt analysis.
• PwC finds millennials expect to scale back the most of any generation, cutting gift budgets by 10% YoY and travel budgets by 37% YoY.
• Gen Z is forecasting a similar pullback: Gift spending is down 9% YoY, and travel is down 29% YoY, while their total spend remains the lowest of any generation.
• Baby boomers are moving in the other direction, with more discretionary income as major expenses like mortgages and dependent costs recede.
• The US personal saving rate fell from 4.5% in January 2026 to 2.7% in June 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
• Gen Z clearly took advantage of promotions during the “five-day frenzy,” the period between Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
• Deloitte found that younger generations, particularly Generation Z, are more likely to seek deals (95%) and are turning to influencers and social media (74%) and AI (43%) for inspiration and product discovery.
• A majority (81%) of Gen Z say they’re prioritizing offline, in-person activities this year, and 63% say a shared meal matters more to them than a physical present.
• Salesforce found that 48% of Gen Z shoppers identify as social shoppers, followed by 37% of Millennials, 18% of Gen X, and 6% of Baby Boomers.

What is the buying behavior of Gen Z?

Gen Z plans cautiously but shops in person and socially. Leading the return to malls, 71% of Gen Z say they enjoy browsing in person, and 61% say the décor and atmosphere make the season feel real. Looking ahead to the holiday season, 28% of Gen Z plan to shop through social apps (up from 25% in May 2025), according to Salesforce.

Holiday Spending by Income Level

• Americans in households earning less than $50,000 now expect to spend $651 on holiday gifts, down more than $100 from last year’s $776, according to Gallup.
• Those in households earning $100,000 or more predict spending $1,479, up from $1,403, and middle-income earners project spending $847, which is more similar to their forecast last year of $902.
• Americans in households earning $100,000 or more now predict spending $1,230 on holiday gifts, down from $1,479 in October and $1,578 in November 2024.
• PwC’s receipt analysis found that consumer spending was concentrated at the top, with high-income households driving nearly all growth.
• High-income households’ share of holiday spend rose from 31.7% in 2024 to 38.5% in 2025, while middle-income households’ share fell from 49.2% to 44.3%, per PwC.
• Salesforce reports that consumer pessimism sits at 52% for low-income shoppers and 50% for middle-income shoppers, while high-income earners come in at just 36%.
• 49% of low-income consumers and 36% of middle-income consumers report actively buying less right now, while 32% of high-income shoppers are actually buying more.
• Deloitte sees value-seeking behaviors across income levels, including switching among brands and retailers and using promotions to manage spending.

When Consumers Start and Finish Holiday Shopping

• NRF found that the leading reasons they shop early are to spread out their budget (54%) or to avoid the stress of last-minute shopping (41%).
• Nearly two-thirds (63%) plan to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to do most of their holiday shopping, up from 59% last year.
• Salesforce data shows shoppers driving a 12% YOY global increase in sales (9% in the U.S.) in the last two weeks of December, outpacing growth in the first half of the season.
• Nearly one in five orders this season was made via BOPIS, and that rate climbed to one in three during the final five days before Christmas.
• BOPIS usage peaked on Monday, Dec. 22, when 35% of all online orders were placed for in-store pickup.
• Adobe counted 25 days that saw consumers spend more than $4 billion in a single day, a significant jump from 18 days in 2024.
• Shopping calendars differ outside the US, and our global Christmas shopping habits coverage compares them.

Source: NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics, LendingTree, PwC, 2025 and 2026

Thanksgiving Weekend and Cyber Week Shopping Statistics

• A record 202.9 million consumers shopped during the five-day weekend from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, surpassing the previous record of 200.4 million set in 2023 and exceeding NRF’s initial expectations of 186.9 million shoppers.
• Black Friday remains the top shopping day for both in-store and online, attracting 80.3 million in-store shoppers and 85.7 million online.
• The Sunday after Thanksgiving drew a record 32.6 million in-store shoppers, a 27% increase over the 25.6 million who shopped in 2024.
• Cyber Monday continues to be the second most popular day for online shopping, attracting 75.9 million online shoppers compared with 64.4 million in 2024.
• On Cyber Monday, 46.9 million consumers shopped online via their mobile device, up from 40.4 million last year.
• Nearly all (96%) of those shopping over the weekend made a holiday-related purchase, spending $337.86 on average, up from $315.56 last year and the highest figure since 2019’s record of $361.90.
• The top shopping destinations during Thanksgiving weekend were supermarkets (47%) and online (45%).
• Adobe’s holiday season recap reports that Cyber Week brought in $44.2 billion online overall, up 7.7% YoY, with Black Friday at $11.8 billion, up 9.1% YoY, and Thanksgiving Day at $6.4 billion, up 5.3% YoY.
• In the peak hours of 8 pm to 10 pm, consumers spent $16 million every minute on Cyber Monday.
• Deloitte found that 82% of surveyed consumers plan to shop during Black Friday-Cyber Monday (BFCM) this year, versus 79% in 2024, and plan to spend $622, down 4% year over year.
• Our online Christmas shopping trends page follows the same weekend by device and retailer type.

By the numbers: A total of 129.5 million consumers shopped in-store, up 3% from 126 million in 2024, while online saw 134.9 million shoppers, up 9% from 124.3 million last year, according to NRF. Online turnout grew faster, yet stores still drew nearly as many people over the five days.

Online Holiday Shopping and E-Commerce Share

• E-commerce reached 18.3% of total US retail sales in the fourth quarter of 2025, not seasonally adjusted, before easing to 16.7% in the first quarter of 2026, per the Census Bureau.
• Mobile shopping hit a new milestone, with the majority of online transactions (56.4%) taking place through a smartphone this season, up from 54.5% in 2024, according to Adobe.
• Mobile shopping was highest on Christmas Day (Dec. 25), driving 66.5% of online sales.
• Of the $257.8 billion spent online this holiday season, over half (54%) was driven by three categories including electronics ($59.8 billion, up 8.2% YoY), apparel ($49.0 billion, up 7.4% YoY) and furniture ($31.1 billion, up 6.6% YoY).
• Other categories with notable growth this season included groceries ($23.7 billion, up 10.2% YoY) and toys ($8.8 billion, up 7.8% YoY).
• Salesforce measured year-over-year (YOY) sales growth of 7% globally and 4% in the U.S., with online traffic up 13% globally and 12% in the U.S. over last year’s volumes.
• The average selling price (ASP) increased 7% YOY both worldwide and in the U.S., while order volumes increased 3% globally and 1% in the U.S. compared with last year.
• Mastercard SpendingPulse found e-commerce sales surged 7.4% over the season.
• Social media is the standout this season, with its share of revenue coming in at 4.6%, up a significant 40.3% YoY.
• Returns were down 1.2% this holiday season, but in the days following Christmas Day (Dec. 26 to Dec. 31), returns were up 4.7%, and 1 out of every 7 returns this season happened during this time period.
• More than $181 billion of global online purchases made between November 1 and December 31 have already been returned, which accounts for 14% of all purchases and marks a 10% increase in returns from last year, according to Salesforce.
• Return windows and refund rules get their own treatment in our Christmas returns and refund statistics, and channel shares in the holiday e-commerce statistics.

What are the worst months for retail sales?

The weeks after the holidays trail the season sharply. Not adjusted retail sales fell 9.7% from the 4th quarter 2025 to the 1st quarter 2026, and e-commerce sales fell 17.5% over the same stretch, according to Census Bureau estimates. Quarterly figures cannot isolate single months, but the January to March stretch carries the post-holiday dip.

Holiday Debt and Buy Now, Pay Later Statistics

• Over a third (37%) of Americans racked up holiday debt, averaging $1,223, up from $1,181 last year and the highest since 2022, according to LendingTree.
• Six-figure earners took on the highest average holiday debt of any group, at $1,505.
• Parents with kids younger than 18 were hit even harder: Nearly half (48%) borrowed to cover the holidays.
• Among those who took on debt this season, 41% are still digging out from last year’s bills.
• 59% with holiday debt this season admit they’re stressed about it and 47% regret spending as much as they did.
• Most of the debt is sitting on credit cards (62%), BNPL loans (35%), or store credit cards (32%).
• 63% said three months or longer when asked how long it’ll take to pay it off, and 40% are paying interest rates of 20.00% or more.
• 45% plan to give fewer gifts this year due to tariffs, and 45% of those giving gifts this year have used buy now, pay later (BNPL) financing for at least one purchase.
• Adobe reports that the flexible payment method contributed $20 billion in online spend, up 9.8% YoY and representing $1.8 billion more than the last season.
• Smartphones drove the vast majority (82.2%) of BNPL purchases this season, and Cyber Monday was the biggest day on record for BNPL, crossing the $1 billion milestone ($1.03 billion, up 4.2% YoY).

AI in Holiday Shopping Statistics

• Adobe found that traffic to retail sites from generative AI tools increased by 693.4% compared to the year prior, and on Cyber Monday, AI traffic to U.S. retail sites increased by 670%.
• PwC found that 73% of Gen Z, 70% of millennials, 65% of Gen X and 60% of baby boomers who use AI turn to it to explore gift ideas they would not otherwise have considered.
• These services were used most in categories including video games, toys, appliances, electronics, and personal care products.
• In Deloitte’s survey, 26% of those surveyed indicated that they trust gen AI more than they did six months ago.
• Salesforce found that shoppers referred to retailer websites from AI-powered search channels converted nine times more often than those coming through social media referrals.
• Companies that deployed their own AI agents saw a 59% higher growth rate, averaging a 6.2% YoY sales increase versus 3.9%.
• 50% of shoppers report using an AI assistant at some point before buying, a 67% year-over-year increase, and 74% of shoppers say they trust the product recommendations they receive from AI chat.
• Bain reports that more online shoppers plan to start the coming season’s holiday shopping experience on AI platforms such as Claude, Google Gemini, and ChatGPT (24% this year, up from 17% in 2025).
• When PwC asked AI users to share a prompt, 21% of users were novices, and 32% showed developing maturity, while only 40% showed proficiency and 8% qualified as advanced.

Where Consumers Shop and Which Gifts They Buy

• Salesforce found that physical stores lead by a wide margin at 77%, outpacing online marketplaces (69%), brand websites (36%), and retailer websites (30%).
• 33% of Gen Z, 27% of Millennials, and 24% of both Gen X and Boomers are planning to show up for early-morning Black Friday events in person.
• NRF’s survey found that online continues to be the top holiday shopping destination, with 55% planning to make purchases digitally, followed by grocery stores (46%), department stores (44%), and discount stores (42%).
• NRF’s survey found the top gifts consumers would like to receive include gift cards (50%), clothing or accessories (46%), books and other media (27%), personal care or beauty items (23%), and electronics (22%).

Source: PwC Holiday Outlook 2026

• LendingTree found clothing (65%) topped the gifts people planned to buy, ahead of electronics or gadgets (49%) and gift cards (45%).
• The top gifts purchased during Thanksgiving weekend were clothing and accessories (51%), followed by toys (32%), according to NRF.
• PwC found that among households with children buying for them, 33% say they’re influenced by whether a product has built-in parental controls or screen-time limits, and 31% care whether a product collects kids’ personal data.
• Consumers say they expect clothing (43%) to overtake groceries (37%) as their highest-spending category in the holiday season, with gift cards (named by 36% of respondents) coming a close third, according to Bain.
• Our Christmas gift popularity data follows how these gift rankings move from one season to the next.

Home Appliance Deals and Demand During the Holidays

• Adobe found that across the season, refrigerators and freezers were up 360% and washers and dryers up 350% compared to pre-season spending levels in October 2025.
• The share-of-units-sold for the most expensive goods increased by 20% compared to the rest of the year, and within categories this figure was up 38% in appliances.
• Deals this season also drove consumers to purchase higher-ticket items in categories such as electronics, sporting goods and appliances.
• KPMG reports that in December, electronics and appliance stores fell 0.4% and furniture store sales lost 0.9%.
• Bain expects that sales in some retail categories will remain flat, including furniture and home furnishings, electronics and appliances, and food and beverage.
• On Cyber Monday, online sales of refrigerators and freezers rose 1,700%, smart home products 1,450% and vacuum cleaners 1,300% compared with average spending levels in October 2025, per Adobe.
• Online sales of Bluetooth headphones and speakers were up 1,850% on Cyber Monday compared to average spending levels in October 2025.
• Which models actually sold is covered in our best-selling home appliances during Christmas data.

Source: Adobe Digital Insights, 2025 holiday season

Why it matters: Adobe found that shoppers found great deals in appliances at 20.2% in 2025 (vs. 19.2% in 2024), while NRF’s Retail Monitor showed electronics and appliance stores down 0.09% year over year unadjusted in December. Appliance buying concentrates on sale days rather than rising across the season.

Source: CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, December 2025

What are the expected holiday trends for 2026?

Forecasters expect a record season built on cautious budgets. Bain says holiday sales are on track to set a new record this year and top $1 trillion for the first time, and PwC finds that expected travel spend per consumer has dropped, down 24%, even as gift budgets hold.

The pattern to watch is a narrow one: households protect gifts and trim travel, lodging and extras, while more of the research moves to AI tools and social apps before the purchase lands in a store or on a retailer site.

How does the holiday season impact the economy?

The two months carry a large share of annual retail. NRF forecast total spending between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion for November and December, and noted that there were 442,000 seasonal hires in 2024.

That hiring and spending is why forecasters tie the season so closely to household income: when disposable income slows, the holiday quarter is where retailers feel it first.

Conclusion

Holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 grew 4.1% last season even as planned budgets shrank midseason, and Deloitte expects holiday retail sales to total between $1.70 trillion and $1.71 trillion this time. Shoppers keep saying they will spend less and then protect the gifts; the growth comes from higher-income households, early deal days and online orders, not from broader budgets.

Retailers benefit most on the big sale days, and appliance buyers benefit from timing purchases to those same days, when discounts peak. The Christmas retail sales trends page follows how those sales days perform as the season unfolds.