Christmas Retail Sales Trends 2025: E-commerce, Mobile Commerce, and Consumer Behavior

As the holiday season approaches, the air is filled with joy, anticipation, and of course, shopping fervor. In recent years, Christmas retail sales trends have undergone seismic shifts, driven by technological advancements, changes in consumer behavior, and evolving economic conditions. Understanding these trends is crucial for businesses aiming to thrive in this competitive landscape. This year, with 2024 poised to break records, let’s dive into the patterns shaping how, when, and why we shop during the holidays.

Editor’s Choice: Key Holiday Sales Statistics

• Christmas retail sales in the US are projected to reach an impressive $960 billion in 2024, marking a 6.2% increase from the previous year.
• Online shopping will dominate, with e-commerce sales expected to make up 35% of total holiday retail revenue, a sharp climb compared to pre-pandemic levels.
• Mobile commerce (m-commerce) is predicted to account for 60% of all online sales, driven by the convenience of smartphone purchases.
• Early shopping trends show that 42% of consumers plan to begin their holiday shopping before Thanksgiving in 2024.
• TikTok’s influence continues to grow, with 1 in 3 holiday shoppers discovering gifts through the platform.
• Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services will be utilized by 37% of consumers, allowing shoppers to spread out their holiday spending.
• Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales alone are projected to surpass $30 billion, underscoring their importance in the retail calendar.

E-commerce Growth and Mobile Commerce

The rise of e-commerce has been one of the most transformative trends in retail, and 2024 will see further acceleration. The convenience of online shopping, combined with increasingly sophisticated digital storefronts, is reshaping holiday spending patterns.

• Global e-commerce holiday sales are projected to hit $1.5 trillion, reflecting a 9% year-over-year growth.
• 60% of US holiday shoppers plan to make at least one purchase via a mobile device.
• Retail apps have seen a 15% increase in download rates during the fourth quarter of 2023, setting the stage for even higher adoption in 2024.
• The average cart value for mobile shoppers is estimated at $128, a 12% increase from last year.
• Social media platforms, such as Instagram and Pinterest, will account for 14% of total online holiday sales through embedded shopping features.
• Voice-assisted shopping is gaining traction, with 8% of online purchases expected to be completed through virtual assistants like Alexa or Google Assistant.
• Retailers offering a seamless mobile experience are predicted to see conversion rates increase by 20% compared to those with poorly optimized platforms.

Consumer Shopping Habits and Behaviors

Shoppers in 2024 are more tech-savvy and strategic, driven by economic conditions and personalized shopping experiences.

• Personalized recommendations influence 76% of consumers’ purchase decisions, emphasizing the importance of tailored marketing.
• 70% of holiday shoppers prioritize discounts and deals when deciding where to buy.
• Sustainability matters, with 41% of consumers willing to pay more for eco-friendly or ethically sourced products.
• The average American plans to spend $832 on gifts, up from $806 in 2023.
• Subscription-based gifting has surged, with services like book-of-the-month clubs or meal kits growing by 19% year-over-year.
• BOPIS (Buy Online, Pick Up In-Store) remains popular, with 25% of shoppers choosing this hybrid option to avoid delivery delays.
• Gift cards top the charts as the most purchased item, with 54% of consumers buying at least one for the 2024 holiday season.

Holiday Spending Moves to TikTok

The power of social media in holiday shopping has reached new heights, and TikTok is leading the charge. The platform has evolved from a hub for viral dance challenges to a powerful retail force influencing purchasing decisions.

• 42% of Gen Z shoppers report discovering holiday gift ideas through TikTok.
• Holiday shopping-related hashtags, such as #HolidayGifts2024, generated over 3 billion views in Q4 alone.
• TikTok’s “Shop Now” feature has seen a 45% increase in clicks, showcasing its effectiveness in driving sales.
• Brands using TikTok for holiday promotions witnessed a 27% higher engagement rate compared to other platforms.
• In-app purchases via TikTok are projected to contribute $5 billion to holiday sales globally.
• Collaborative campaigns with TikTok influencers increased consumer trust, with 34% of shoppers stating they purchased a product directly because of an influencer’s recommendation.
• DIY and handmade gift trends, popularized on TikTok, have driven a 21% increase in craft and hobby store sales.

Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Trends in Holiday Shopping

The BNPL revolution continues to gain momentum, making holiday shopping more accessible for consumers while boosting sales for retailers.

• 37% of holiday shoppers plan to use BNPL services, up from 29% in 2023.
• The average BNPL transaction value during the holiday season is expected to reach $198, a 9% year-over-year increase.
• Millennials are the largest BNPL users, representing 45% of transactions, followed by Gen Z at 35%.
• Retailers offering BNPL options experience a 20% higher conversion rate than those without.
• 54% of BNPL users state they wouldn’t have made a purchase without the installment option.
• Electronics and luxury items dominate BNPL categories, accounting for 62% of total transactions during the holiday season.
• BNPL services have driven an 18% decrease in abandoned carts, particularly for higher-priced items.

The Holiday Season Is Getting Longer

The holiday shopping season is no longer confined to November and December. Retailers are capitalizing on “Christmas Creep,” with sales starting earlier than ever before.

• 58% of consumers began their holiday shopping before November 2024, compared to 50% in 2023.
• Early holiday promotions like Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days in October spurred a 21% increase in early-season spending.
• The average time spent shopping for holiday gifts has extended to 6 weeks, up from 4.8 weeks five years ago.
• Retailers offering early bird discounts saw a 32% uptick in sales compared to competitors who delayed promotions.
• Pre-Black Friday sales accounted for 25% of total holiday revenue in 2023, a trend expected to grow in 2024.
• Extended holiday return policies have incentivized early shopping, with 64% of consumers citing flexible returns as a key factor.
• Holiday-themed marketing now starts as early as September, leading to a 15% rise in seasonal advertising spend.

Early Shopping and Extended Holiday Season

The “buy early, save more” mantra has become increasingly popular, with consumers spreading their purchases across several months.

• 45% of Americans reported starting holiday shopping as early as September 2024, aiming to spread out expenses.
• Retailers offering layaway programs have seen a 12% rise in usage as consumers look to manage their budgets.
• The average shopper completes 67% of their holiday purchases by Thanksgiving.
• Extended holiday sales, such as “12 Days of Deals” campaigns, generate 18% more revenue than single-day events.
• Early shoppers are more likely to purchase big-ticket items, with an average spend of $243 per purchase.
• Retailers promoting early-bird deals in October experienced a 28% increase in foot traffic and online visits.
• Prolonged sales cycles have also boosted holiday employment, with seasonal hiring up by 11% compared to 2023.

Popular Product Categories and Gift Preferences

Consumer preferences in holiday gifts continue to evolve, with trends favoring practicality, tech, and sustainability. Understanding the most popular categories helps retailers tailor their strategies.

• Electronics lead the pack, with smart home devices, tablets, and gaming consoles among the top choices, accounting for 28% of holiday spending.
• Clothing and accessories follow closely, comprising 23% of total purchases, driven by seasonal fashion trends and discounts.
• Gift cards remain a favorite, with 54% of consumers purchasing at least one for convenience and flexibility.
• Eco-friendly products, including reusable home goods and sustainable apparel, saw a 17% increase in sales year-over-year.
• Subscription services, such as meal kits and streaming platforms, are becoming mainstream, with 19% of shoppers opting for these gifts.
• DIY kits and craft supplies have surged in popularity, thanks to rising interest in personalized gifting, showing a 12% growth from last year.
• Pet products, including luxury pet toys and grooming kits, grew by 10%, reflecting the growing affection for furry family members.

Consumers Are Looking for Deals

Savvy holiday shoppers are increasingly on the hunt for the best deals, making discount strategies a crucial part of retail success.

• 70% of shoppers report being influenced by discounts and promotions when deciding where to buy.
• Flash sales have gained momentum, with retailers seeing a 15% spike in sales during short-term discount periods.
• Free shipping offers are a dealbreaker for 79% of online shoppers during the holiday season.
• Coupons and promo codes are heavily utilized, with 45% of consumers actively searching for them before making a purchase.
• Retailers offering loyalty program perks experienced 22% higher repeat purchase rates.
• Bundles and BOGO (Buy One Get One) deals have become a hit, contributing to a 13% increase in average order value.
• Shoppers are planning to allocate 59% of their holiday budgets to sales events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday, emphasizing their importance.

A Big Black Friday and Cyber Monday

The twin juggernauts of holiday shopping, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, remain essential for consumers and businesses alike.

• Black Friday sales in 2024 are expected to reach $13.5 billion, up 7% year-over-year.
• Cyber Monday is predicted to generate an even higher $15.2 billion in revenue, solidifying its role as the season’s biggest online shopping day.
• In-store traffic on Black Friday is projected to grow by 11%, marking a recovery from pandemic-era declines.
• Cyber Monday sees mobile commerce taking the lead, accounting for 65% of total sales.
• Retailers offering exclusive Cyber Monday discounts have experienced 25% higher conversion rates compared to standard days.
• 75% of Gen Z and Millennials report planning purchases specifically for these sales events.
• Popular categories for these days include electronics (37%), home goods (21%), and toys (15%), showcasing their broad appeal.

Challenges With Post-Holiday-Season Returns

The joy of giving sometimes comes with returns, and handling post-holiday returns efficiently is a significant challenge for retailers.

• Approximately 18% of holiday purchases are returned, representing $150 billion in merchandise annually.
• Free return policies are a decisive factor for 67% of online shoppers.
• Retailers with streamlined return processes saw 12% higher customer satisfaction rates in 2023.
• Reverse logistics costs increase by 24% during January, emphasizing the need for efficient operations.
• Gift returns peak during the first two weeks of January, accounting for 60% of total returns in the month.
• Stores offering in-person returns for online purchases experienced a 20% boost in foot traffic post-holiday season.
• Restocking fees deter 35% of consumers from making returns, influencing purchase decisions in the future.

Supply Chain and Inventory Management

Managing supply chains during the holiday season is more critical than ever, with disruptions impacting product availability and delivery timelines.

• 44% of retailers faced supply chain issues during the 2023 holiday season, a figure projected to decrease to 37% in 2024.
• Early stockpiling strategies by retailers reduced last-minute shortages by 15%.
• Products categorized as “out of stock” online increased by 22% in December 2023, highlighting the need for real-time inventory tracking.
• Retailers utilizing AI-driven supply chain solutions reported a 19% improvement in logistics efficiency.
• Third-party logistics (3PL) partnerships grew by 14%, allowing smaller retailers to compete in fast delivery markets.
• Free shipping thresholds encouraged larger orders, with 52% of consumers adding more to their carts to qualify.
• Holiday shipping guarantees, such as delivery by Christmas Eve, influenced 41% of online purchases.

What We Saw in the 2023 Holiday Shopping Season

Looking back at 2023, the retail landscape provides valuable insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics.

• Total holiday retail sales in 2023 reached $902 billion, a 5.8% growth compared to 2022.
• E-commerce sales alone contributed $314 billion, a record high at 34.8% of total sales.
• Omnichannel shopping, combining online and in-store experiences, was utilized by 56% of consumers.
• Gift cards were the top-purchased item, making up 18% of all gift sales.
• Inflation concerns influenced 72% of shoppers, leading to the prioritization of discounts and deals.
• Shipping delays were reduced by 11%, thanks to improved logistics and early stocking.
• The average consumer spent $812 on holiday purchases, marking a slight rise from $800 in 2022.

Holiday Sales Predicted to Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels

Retailers are optimistic that 2024 marks a return to stability, with spending patterns resembling pre-pandemic norms.

• Total holiday spending is expected to surpass $960 billion, reflecting a robust 6% growth year-over-year.
• In-store shopping is projected to account for 55% of total sales, reversing the pandemic-induced decline.
• Luxury goods sales are forecasted to grow by 8%, as affluent consumers resume high-ticket purchases.
• Travel-related gifts, such as airline vouchers and luggage, are experiencing a 12% uptick amid rising wanderlust.
• Consumer confidence in the economy has improved, with 38% of shoppers willing to splurge on high-end items.
• Retailers investing in experiential shopping, such as live demos and events, report a 22% higher customer engagement rate.
• 2024’s holiday season is set to become the most profitable since 2019, restoring normalcy and optimism to the market.

Recent Developments

The Christmas retail landscape in 2024 is defined by innovations and adjustments, reflecting shifting consumer demands and technological advancements. Here are the latest updates shaping this season:

• AI-powered shopping assistants have revolutionized customer experience, with 19% of consumers using virtual assistants to finalize purchases.
• Social commerce platforms such as TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook Shops saw a 27% growth in holiday-related transactions compared to last year.
• Augmented reality (AR) shopping experiences, including virtual try-ons, boosted conversions by 15% for participating retailers.
• Retailers increasingly rely on blockchain for inventory management, reducing order errors by 22% and improving overall efficiency.
• Sustainability initiatives are becoming a hallmark of holiday campaigns, with 31% of brands committing to carbon-neutral shipping options this season.
• Subscription box services featuring curated holiday-themed products experienced a 20% increase in sign-ups, showcasing the popularity of convenience and personalization.
• The expansion of same-day delivery services by major retailers, like Target and Walmart, has resulted in a 35% spike in last-minute orders.

These developments highlight a dynamic and innovative retail ecosystem designed to meet evolving consumer expectations.

Conclusion

The 2024 holiday shopping season is shaping up to be one for the record books, driven by innovative technology, early planning, and a strong consumer focus on value and convenience. From the continued dominance of e-commerce and mobile commerce to the growing influence of social platforms like TikTok and sustainability in shopping habits, retailers and consumers alike are adapting to new norms.

The return to pre-pandemic spending levels signals a renewed sense of optimism and stability in the market, while advancements like AI, AR, and BNPL services are setting the stage for an even more interconnected and efficient shopping experience. As the season unfolds, businesses that prioritize customer-centric strategies, personalized experiences, and efficient operations will be best positioned to thrive.

The story of Christmas retail sales in 2024 is not just one of dollars and trends—it’s a testament to resilience, innovation, and the enduring joy of giving.