Christmas Retail Sales Trends Statistics 2026: Holiday Sales and Forecasts

Holiday retail sales in the U.S. grew 4.1% from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, 2025, near the top of the National Retail Federation’s forecast range. NRF had projected total spending between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, after 2024 holiday sales rose 4.3% over 2023 to reach $976.1 billion. Online growth outrunning total sales is the clearest of the Christmas retail sales trends in last season’s data.

Adobe counted $257.8 billion online from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, up 6.8% year-over-year at U.S. retail sites. For 2026, Deloitte projects an increase of 4.0% to 4.8%, to between $1.70 trillion and $1.71 trillion from November through January. The data below splits the season by channel, category, store type, and shopping day.

Key Takeaways

• Online beat total retail in the holiday quarter: the fourth quarter 2025 e-commerce estimate increased 5.3% from the fourth quarter of 2024 while total retail sales increased 2.7%, per the Census Bureau.
• Soft goods led December, when clothing and accessories stores were up 6.11% year over year while electronics and appliance stores were down 0.09% year over year, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.
• Appliances moved online on deals, with Adobe measuring refrigerators and freezers (up 360%) and washers and dryers (up 350%) against October 2025 spending levels.
• Bain expects US retail sales to grow 4.5% YoY this season, with more than half of the nominal sales growth coming from higher inflation.
• The UK had a weaker Christmas: UK Total retail sales increased by 1.2% year on year in December, against a growth of 3.2% in December 2024.
• Challenger predicts seasonal retail hiring will fall below last year’s level to 450,000 retail jobs in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Editor’s Choice

• US holiday sales growth: 2025 holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 grew 4.1%.
• US online holiday spend: consumers spent $257.8 billion online from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31.
• Global online holiday sales: record-breaking online sales of $1.29 trillion globally and $294 billion in the United States.
• Cyber Monday online spend: $14.25 billion in online spend, up 7.1% YoY.
• Thanksgiving weekend shoppers: a record 202.9 million consumers shopped during the five-day holiday weekend.
• 2026 holiday e-commerce forecast: Deloitte forecasts e-commerce sales between $316.1 billion and $318.9 billion this season.

Christmas Retail Sales Trends in 2025: US Holiday Results

Every figure comes from 33 cited findings across 11 publishers: 14 Tier 1 findings from the U.S. Census Bureau, ONS, Adobe, Mastercard and Salesforce’s newsroom, and 19 Tier 2 findings from NRF, the BRC, Deloitte, PwC, Bain, Challenger and Salesforce research. Publication dates run from November 2025 to September 2026. Only figures visible on the publisher’s own page were used, and they are reviewed when those publishers release new editions.

• NRF had forecast that retail sales in November and December would grow between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024.
• Total retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, were up 3.54% unadjusted year over year in December, according to the Retail Monitor.
• That compared with increases of 0.12% month over month and 4.53% year over year in November.
• December’s numbers brought total 2025 sales, as calculated by the Retail Monitor, to an increase of 4.93% over 2024.
• A late Thanksgiving pushed Cyber Monday into December in 2025, so an additional busy day of holiday spending is included in December’s data.
• The Census Bureau’s longer window shows retail sales between November 2025 and January 2026 (seasonally adjusted and excluding automotive and gasoline) grew 4.1% and totaled $1.63 trillion.
• Total retail sales for the fourth quarter of 2025 were estimated at $1,900.5 billion.
• Mastercard SpendingPulse measures in-store and online retail sales representing all payment types and is not adjusted for inflation, so its growth rate includes price increases.

Source: Adobe, US Census Bureau, NRF, Salesforce, Mastercard, December 2025 to March 2026

2026 Christmas Retail Sales Forecasts

• Deloitte expects e-commerce to grow 7.5% and 8.4% year-over-year during the 2026 to 2027 holiday season.
• Bain forecasts that nonstore sales are expected to grow 9% YoY, driving about 60% of nominal sales growth in the November and December window, while in-store sales grow 2.5% YoY.
• Bain’s 4.5% outlook compares with a 3.5% YoY rise recorded in the 2025 holiday season on its own measure.
• Bain expects sales in some retail categories to remain flat, including furniture and home furnishings, electronics and appliances, and food and beverage.
• Shoppers in Bain’s survey say they expect clothing (43%) to overtake groceries (37%) as their highest-spending category.
• PwC finds that holiday gift spending is projected to dip just 2% from last year.
• Households with children expect to spend more ($875), compared to households without children ($635), according to PwC.
• NRF’s 2025 hiring forecast was between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers, against 442,000 seasonal hires in 2024.

Source: Deloitte, PwC, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, September 2026

What are the expected holiday trends for 2026?

Forecasters expect moderate growth led by online channels. Deloitte projects an increase of 4.0% to 4.8% in holiday retail sales, and Salesforce predicts 20% of all 2026 holiday ecommerce traffic will originate from AI chat agents. PwC finds that eight in ten consumers plan to adopt a budgeting strategy this season.

Are retail sales expected to decrease in 2026?

None of the forecasts captured here projects a decline in total holiday sales. Bain expects total growth of 4.5%, but inflation will account for more than half of the nominal rise in sales, so unit volumes could stay flat in several categories. The pullback shows up in budgets instead, with PwC reporting that on average, consumers expect to spend $708 on gifts this year.

Recent Developments

• September 23, 2026: Challenger reported that retailers added 461,500 jobs in the final quarter of 2025, the smallest seasonal gain since 2008 and 15% below the 543,100 added in Q4 2024.
• September 16, 2026: The Census Bureau estimated U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2026 at $773.9 billion, up 1.2% from the previous month, and up 6.0% from August 2025.
• September 10, 2026: Deloitte’s forecast noted that in 2025, holiday sales increased by 4.1% in the same period and projected disposable personal income to grow between 4.5% and 5.2% during the holiday season.
• September 4, 2026: PwC’s Holiday Outlook found that consumer confidence fell 18.5% YoY, according to the University of Michigan’s index (from 60.7 in June 2025 to 49.5 in June 2026).
• September 3, 2026: Bain reported that more online shoppers plan to start the coming season’s holiday shopping experience on AI platforms such as Claude, Google Gemini, and ChatGPT (24% this year, up from 17% in 2025).
• July 20, 2026: Salesforce found that global digital traffic grew 18% in Q2, but order volume barely moved; it’s up just 1%.

Holiday Online Sales and Cyber Week Spending

• Adobe’s 2025 holiday season results recorded that 25 days saw consumers spend more than $4 billion in a single day (a significant jump from 18 days in 2024).
• Cyber Monday remained the biggest e-commerce day of the season at $14.25 billion online, ahead of Black Friday ($11.8 billion) and Thanksgiving Day ($6.4 billion), per Adobe.
• Cyber Week (the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday) brought in $44.2 billion online overall, up 7.7% YoY.
• The majority of online transactions (56.4%) took place through a smartphone this season (up from 54.5% in 2024).
• Mobile shopping was highest on Christmas Day (Dec. 25), driving 66.5% of online sales (vs. 65% in 2024).
• Buy now, pay later usage hit an all-time high this holiday season, contributing $20 billion in online spend, up 9.8% YoY.
• Smartphones are the device of choice for consumers leveraging this flexible payment method, driving the vast majority (82.2%) of BNPL purchases.
• Traffic to retail sites from generative AI tools increased by 693.4% compared to the year prior, per Adobe.
• Cyber Monday growth was outpaced by Black Friday (up 9.1% YoY), as shoppers took earlier deals, a shift the online Christmas shopping trends data tracks across devices and channels.

Online Holiday Spending by Product Category

• Of the $257.8 billion spent online this holiday season, over half (54%) was driven by three categories: electronics, apparel and furniture.
• Electronics led online spending at $59.8 billion (up 8.2% YoY), ahead of apparel at $49.0 billion (up 7.4%) and furniture at $31.1 billion (up 6.6%).
• Groceries grew 10.2% YoY and cosmetics 9.3% YoY, the two strongest growth rates among the categories Adobe itemized.
• Toys grew 7.8% YoY and sporting goods 7.7% YoY online.
• Adobe’s list of top-selling items included toys such as LEGO Icons sets, Wicked dolls, Furreal plush toys, LeapFrog Learning toys, and Hot Wheels sets.
• Top-selling gaming consoles included Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 5, Nintendo Switch 2, and PlayStation Portal.
• Online sales of video games were up 415% this season (compared to pre-season spending levels in October 2025).

What is the most sold item during Christmas?

By online dollars, electronics accounted for $59.8 billion of Adobe’s season total, ahead of apparel. By shopper counts, NRF found that the top gifts purchased during this period were clothing and accessories (51%), followed by toys (32%) over Thanksgiving weekend. The Christmas gift popularity statistics break the gift list down further.

Holiday Discounts by Product Category

• Strong discounts this season drove resilient consumer demand online, according to Adobe.
• Discounts peaked deepest on electronics at 30.9% off listed price in 2025 (vs. 30.1% in 2024), followed by toys at 29.6% (vs. 28% in 2024) and apparel at 25.1% (vs. 23.2% in 2024).
• The share-of-units-sold for the most expensive goods increased by 20% compared to the rest of the year.
• Within categories, this figure was up 56% in electronics and 55% in sporting goods.
• It was up 34% in personal care products and 29% in tools.
• Deals this season also drove consumers to purchase higher-ticket items in categories such as electronics, sporting goods, and appliances.

Christmas Appliance and Electronics Sales Trends

• The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor showed electronics and appliance stores were down 2.94% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 1.01% year over year unadjusted in November.
• Electronics and appliance stores were up 2.28% month over month seasonally adjusted in December, the month the Cyber Monday spending landed.
• Against October 2025 levels, Adobe measured online sales of video games up 415% and hand tools up 395% over the season, with refrigerators and freezers up 360% and washers and dryers up 350%.
• Adobe’s hot-seller list included cordless vacuum cleaners, Ray-Ban Meta glasses, air fryers alongside toys and consoles.
• Traffic to retail sites from generative AI shopping tools increased 693.4% compared to the year prior, and 670% on Cyber Monday.
• Bain’s 2026 outlook expects electronics and appliances to be one of the flat categories this season.

Key finding: Adobe Analytics reports that holiday deals pushed shoppers toward pricier goods: the share-of-units-sold for the most expensive goods was up 38% in appliances against the rest of the year, while appliances at 20.2% off list price in 2025 (vs. 19.2% in 2024) marked the season’s peak appliance discount online.

Appliance buyers behaved differently from appliance stores. Store-level sales barely moved year over year. Online demand for big-ticket kitchen and laundry appliances spiked during the discount window instead, so the holiday appliance purchase now looks like a deal-timed online decision. The best-selling home appliances during Christmas figures show which appliance types benefit most.

Holiday Retail Sales Growth by Store Type

• December sales were up in six out of nine categories on a yearly basis, led by clothing stores, sporting goods stores and digital products.
• November sales were up in all but one category on a yearly basis, per the Retail Monitor.
• Building and garden supply stores were up 1.11% month over month seasonally adjusted but down 5.3% year over year unadjusted in December.
• Clothing and accessories stores were up 2.05% month over month seasonally adjusted in December.
• General merchandise stores were up 2.9% month over month seasonally adjusted in December.
• Total sales were up 5.06% year over year for the first 11 months of the year, and core sales were up 5.22%.
• The Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.

Source: CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, December 2025 and January 2026

Thanksgiving Weekend Shopper Turnout

• A record 202.9 million consumers shopped during the five-day weekend from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, surpassing the previous record of 200.4 million set in 2023, according to NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics.
• The total also exceeds NRF’s initial expectations of 186.9 million shoppers over the holiday weekend.
• Nearly all (96%) of those shopping over the weekend made a holiday-related purchase, spending $337.86 on average.
• This is up from $315.56 last year and is the highest figure since 2019’s record of $361.90.
• Approximately 67% ($225.74) was spent on gifts over the weekend.
• The top shopping destinations during Thanksgiving weekend were supermarkets (47%) and online (45%).
• As of Thanksgiving weekend, 84% of consumers had already begun their holiday shopping.
• The survey of 3,099 adult consumers was conducted Nov. 26 to Nov. 30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.

Source: NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics, December 2025

E-Commerce Share of Holiday Quarter Retail Sales

• The estimate of U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the fourth quarter of 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes, was $316.1 billion, an increase of 1.7% from the third quarter of 2025, according to the Census Bureau’s fourth-quarter e-commerce report.
• On a not adjusted basis, the estimate of U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the fourth quarter of 2025 totaled $365.2 billion, an increase of 21.8% from the third quarter of 2025.
• On a not-adjusted basis, e-commerce sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 accounted for 18.3% of total sales, against 17.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
• Seasonally adjusted, e-commerce’s share of total retail sales edged up from 16.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 16.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025, per the Census Bureau.
• Total e-commerce sales for 2025 were estimated at $1,233.7 billion, an increase of 5.4% from 2024.
• Total retail sales in 2025 increased 3.5% from 2024, per the Census Bureau.
• E-commerce sales in 2025 accounted for 16.4% of total sales. E-commerce sales in 2024 accounted for 16.1% of total sales, a trend the holiday season e-commerce statistics follow through the peak weeks.

By the numbers: The Census Bureau estimates the fourth quarter 2025 e-commerce estimate increased 5.6% from the fourth quarter of 2024 while total retail sales increased 2.8% on a not adjusted basis. That gap, repeated on the seasonally adjusted series, shows online sales taking a larger share of each holiday quarter.

Online vs In-Store Holiday Sales Growth

• Mastercard SpendingPulse measured US e-commerce up +7.4% from November 1 to December 21, against +2.9% for in-store sales and +3.9% for total retail excluding automotive, while apparel led all segments at +7.8%.
• Apparel online sales were up +8.5% and in-store sales also rose +7.0%, per Mastercard SpendingPulse.
• Salesforce found that for holiday shopping channel preferences, physical stores lead by a wide margin at 77%, outpacing online marketplaces (69%), brand websites (36%), and retailer websites (30%).
• Salesforce predicts 38% of all holiday retail dollars will be “Hybrid Sales,” mixing digital research with a store purchase.
• PwC’s survey finds 60% expect to purchase gifts in-store, compared with 38% on brand/retailer websites, 9% on social media, and just 4% through AI tools.
• More than half (52%) of all consumers expect to visit stores in person to decide what to give.
• Bain’s forecast states that in-store sales drive 70% of the holiday season, with most new growth coming from nonstore sales.

Global Online Holiday Sales

• Salesforce found shoppers driving a 12% YOY global increase in sales (9% in the U.S.) in the last two weeks of December.
• AI and agents powered a massive portion of the holidays, driving 20% of all retail sales and fueling $262 billion in revenue.
• More than $181 billion of global online purchases made between November 1 and December 31 have already been returned, a flow the Christmas returns and refund statistics measure in detail.
• This accounts for 14% of all purchases and marks a 10% increase in returns from last year.
• Salesforce’s 2026 index shows social driving 29% more ecommerce visits in the second quarter of 2026, and cart abandonment sitting at 82%.
• Consumer pessimism is up 16% over last year, according to Salesforce.

Source: Salesforce, January 2026

UK Christmas Retail Sales

• UK December growth was below the 12-month average growth of 2.3%, according to the BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor.
• The online penetration rate (the proportion of Non-Food items bought online) increased to 38.6% in December from 38.5% in December 2024.
• The ONS estimates the quantity of goods bought (volume) in retail sales fell by 0.3% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025 compared with Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025.
• Retail sales volumes are estimated to have risen by 0.4% in December 2025, following a fall of 0.1% in November 2025.
• Annual sales volumes rose 1.3% over the year to 2025.
• Online spending values rose by 2.1% when comparing Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025 with Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025. It rose by 8.4% when comparing the same period with Quarter 4 2024.
• The UK figures sit alongside other national results in the global Christmas shopping statistics.

Source: BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor, January 2026

Worth noting: The BRC reports that non-food sales decreased by 0.3% year on year in December, against a growth of 4.4% in December 2024. Food carried the month instead, and the BRC ties part of that food growth to rising prices rather than extra volume.

How much of annual retail sales happen during the holidays?

NRF reports that holiday sales in November and December have averaged about 19% of total retail sales over the last five years, but the figure can be higher for some retailers. Holiday sales can be more profitable because the increased volume of purchases comes without significantly increasing retailers’ fixed costs of doing business.

Shoppers planned to spend $890.49 per person on average this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations, and other seasonal items in NRF’s 2025 survey, which is only 1.3% less than last year’s record of $902. The holiday consumer behavior insights cover how shoppers split those budgets.

Conclusion

Holiday sales grew 4.1% last season, and online spending set the pace, with Adobe counting $257.8 billion online. The store data tells a split story: apparel, sporting goods and general merchandise gained in December, while electronics, appliance and furniture stores gave back ground as shoppers waited for online discounts on big-ticket goods.

This season’s forecasts extend the same pattern. Deloitte projects an increase of 4.0% to 4.8%, with e-commerce growing faster, and Bain’s view that inflation drives more than half of nominal growth means appliance and electronics retailers should expect flat unit demand.