Christmas Returns and Refund Statistics 2026: Rates, Fees and Fraud

Retailers expect 17% of holiday sales to be returned, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Happy Returns. NRF calls that rate consistent with previous years. Salesforce supplies the dollar side of the Christmas returns and refund statistics: more than $181 billion of global online purchases made between November 1 and December 31 were already sent back. That accounts for 14% of all purchases and marks a 10% increase in returns from last year.

Narvar measured holiday return volume up roughly 11% while order volume increased approximately 6%. Returns grew faster than the sales behind them. The sections below cover return rates and values from the last season, early surveys on refunds and fees for the coming holidays, fraud, UK gift returns and the refund deadlines set by US and UK rules. A holiday return-rate forecast for the new season has not been published yet.

Key Takeaways

• An estimated 19.3% of online sales will be returned in 2025, above the 15.8% of annual sales retailers estimate will be returned.
• Return volume rose nearly twice as fast as holiday orders, up roughly 11%, per Narvar’s platform data.
• 56% of consumers have delayed or avoided a purchase because they were uncertain how long a refund might take, according to Narvar’s 2026 Holiday Shopping Report.
• 65.2% of merchants charge return fees on at least some outcomes, with an average fee of $9.04, per Loop’s 2026 report.
• The NRF report found that 9% of all returns are fraudulent.
• In the UK, overall return rates have decreased from 43% to 33% of consumers year-on-year, according to a Manhattan Associates study.

Editor’s Choice

• Online holiday purchases returned: more than $181 billion globally, 14% of all purchases.
• Implied US holiday returns: about $171.7 billion, a MyHomeAppliances estimate from NRF’s return rate and holiday forecast.
• Total US retail returns: $849.9 billion projected for 2025.
• UK Christmas gift returns: a £1.05 billion returns challenge post-Christmas.
• Return fraud losses: $103 billion for retailers in 2024.
• Shoppers returning or exchanging: 26% of shoppers returned or exchanged items or plan to do so, per ICSC.

Christmas Returns and Refund Statistics at a Glance

These figures come from 28 source excerpts: 9 Tier 1, 12 Tier 2 and 7 Tier 3. They were published between December 2024 and September 2026 by regulators, company newsrooms, industry associations and first-party surveys. Market research resellers and aggregator sites were excluded. Figures are reviewed on a rolling basis and updated when sources publish new editions.

• NRF forecast total spending between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion for November and December, up from a 2024 season in which holiday sales rose 4.3% over 2023 to reach $976.1 billion.
• Salesforce found that items purchased in-store during the final four days before Christmas face the highest likelihood of being returned in January.
• Return spending loops back into sales: one-third say they ultimately spent more or will spend more than the value of the original purchase, per ICSC’s post-holiday survey.
• ICSC’s survey was conducted online from January 5 to 7, 2026, with a sample of 1,013 U.S. adults.
• The best-selling Christmas appliance figures cover which appliances shoppers buy in the same season.

Source: NRF and Happy Returns 2025, Salesforce 2026, CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor 2026, ICSC 2026, Manhattan Associates 2026

Holiday Return Volume vs Sales Growth

• Returns grew faster than orders: Narvar measured return volume up roughly 11% against order volume up about 6%, and Salesforce counted returns up 10% while global orders rose 3%.
• Salesforce reported record-breaking online sales of $1.29 trillion globally and $294 billion in the United States for the season.
• The average selling price increased 7% year over year both worldwide and in the U.S., so part of the dollar growth was price rather than volume.
• Shoppers browsed harder before buying: online traffic grew 13% globally and 12% in the U.S.
• On Narvar’s data, boxless returns cut total processing expenses by 15 to 20% for retailers that adopted them.
• The broader Christmas retail sales trends show the same season from the sales side.

Every measure of returns grew faster than every measure of orders. That gap is the cost retailers carry into January.

Recent Developments

• September 16, 2026: Narvar reported that the share of shoppers returning something every one to three weeks nearly doubled year over year, from 14% to 24%.
• September 10, 2026: Deloitte projected holiday retail sales between $1.70 trillion and $1.71 trillion for November 2026 through January 2027, an increase of 4.0% to 4.8%.
• September 10, 2026: Deloitte also put e-commerce holiday sales at $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion, increasing 7.5% to 8.4%.
• September 8, 2026: PwC’s Holiday Outlook 2026 found that holiday gift spending is projected to dip just 2% from last year, and consumers expect to spend $708 on gifts on average.
• August 24, 2026: Narvar’s 2026 Holiday Shopping Report found that 65% of consumers plan to use AI for at least one part of their holiday shopping this year, and 15% plan to use it for managing what happens after checkout, including package tracking and return reminders.

Value of Holiday Returns by Season

• Salesforce’s 2024 figure came with a warning: more than $122 billion of global purchases had already been returned, up 28% from last year.
• The increase is partially due to trending consumer behaviors like “try-on hauls” and bracketing, buying an extra size above and below a standard size.
• Salesforce projected that retailers will likely see this number grow to $133 billion for that season.
• Applying NRF’s 17% holiday return expectation to its $1.01 trillion forecast floor implies roughly $171.7 billion of US holiday merchandise coming back.
• That derived figure is a floor estimate built from a retailer expectation and a sales forecast, so treat it as an order of magnitude.

Source: Salesforce January 2025 and January 2026, NRF 2025

Key finding: Salesforce counted more than $181 billion of global online purchases made between November 1 and December 31 already returned, 14% of all purchases. Items purchased in-store during the final four days before Christmas face the highest likelihood of being returned in January, so the last-minute rush carries the highest return risk.

Refund Speed and Instant Refund Expectations

• Happy Returns found that 84% of shoppers name box-free, label-free returns with instant refunds as their favorite way to return, and NRF found 82% of consumers say free returns are an important consideration when shopping online.
• Narvar’s survey found that instant refunds would make nearly 9 in 10 more likely to buy.
• About 81% of consumers read return policies before making a purchase, according to UPS.
• A bad refund costs repeat business: about 71% of consumers say they are less likely to shop with a retailer again after a poor experience, up from 67% in 2024.
• Four out of five said they will share their negative experience with friends and family.
• 51% of consumers say avoiding delivery issues, offering a hassle-free return experience, and providing a discount would each make them want to shop with a retailer again after the holidays.
• Retailers selling gifts online can compare these expectations with the holiday e-commerce statistics for the same season.

The refund has moved from the end of the transaction to the start of it. Shoppers unsure about the refund often hold off, so return policy now works as a sales tool before it works as a cost.

UK Christmas Gift Returns

• Manhattan Associates found that UK retailers will face a £1.05 billion returns challenge post-Christmas, with consumers expected to send back an estimated 52 million gifts.
• On average, the value of a returned gift is £57.
• Shoppers aged 18-24 are the most prolific returners, with over half (53%) admitting to returning at least one gift last Christmas.
• Those aged 65+ are the least likely to return their presents, with almost 9 in 10 (87%) claiming not to have returned any gifts last Christmas.
• Clothing is the most-returned Christmas gift, returned by 39% of consumers (it was also number one last year, at 42%), while shoes and footwear reached 37% after a surge in 2025, jumping up from 21%.
• Four in five people (81%) in the UK still prefer a human store associate to support them with returns over a digital assistant.

The UK moved against the US trend: fewer UK consumers returned gifts while US return volume climbed.

Holiday vs Online vs Total Return Rates

• NRF’s estimate of returns totaling $849.9 billion keeps the rate in line with 16.9% last year, when returns totaled $890 billion.
• Online sales carry the highest rate: an estimated 19.3% of online sales will be returned in 2025, against the 17% of holiday sales retailers expect back.
• Retailers surveyed indicate their top priorities for 2026 are increasing online sales and reducing return rates.
• Younger shoppers push the online rate up: those between the ages of 18 and 30 made 7.7 returns of online purchases in the last 12 months, on average, more than any other generation.

Annual US Retail Returns Totals

• Appriss Retail and Deloitte reported that total merchandise returns for the year reached $685 billion, representing 13.21% of total retail sales, which amounted to $5.19 trillion in 2024.
• In the same report, fraudulent returns and claims resulted in a $103 billion loss for retailers in 2024, with 15.14% of all returns deemed fraudulent.
• Retailers estimate that 15.8% of their annual sales will be returned this year, totaling $849.9 billion, per NRF.

Source: NRF and Happy Returns 2025, Appriss Retail 2024

Worth noting: NRF put 2024 returns at $890 billion, or 16.9% of sales, while Appriss Retail and Deloitte put the same year at $685 billion, representing 13.21% of total retail sales. The two use different methods, so compare each series with itself across years rather than mixing them.

How Many Shoppers Return Christmas Gifts

• Shorr Packaging’s survey found that 65% have returned a gift during the holidays, and 40% anticipate doing so this season.
• Returns are routine beyond the holidays: 91% of consumers say they’ve returned at least one item in the past year, averaging nearly five returned items annually.
• 26% of shoppers returned or exchanged items or plan to do so, according to ICSC’s post-holiday consumer survey.
• Holiday return habits are splitting, per Narvar: 37.8% plan to return more over the holidays, 22.6% plan to return less, and “about the same” has fallen to 39.6%.
• The holiday consumer behavior data tracks how the same shoppers plan and pay for gifts.

Top Reasons Shoppers Return Purchases

• Shorr Packaging found that 44% of returns are due to items not fitting or being the wrong size, followed by damaged products (31%), items that did not match the description (11%) and a simple change of mind (9%).
• In-store remains the most popular option, with 36% of consumers choosing to walk items back into a physical location, followed by third-party drop-off locations (32%) and direct mail-back returns (29%).
• Clothing is by far the most returned category, cited by two-thirds of respondents, while electronics (17%) and home goods (5%) trailed behind.
• More than 3 in 5 (73%) have returned items due to damage from shipping, and 87% say packages often arrive in boxes far too large for the item.
• Nearly 7 in 10 (69%) have kept an item they wanted to return simply because the process was too frustrating.
• 40% of consumers surveyed admit they’ve felt guilty about returning an item, and 1 in 4 say they don’t check the return policy before buying.

For appliance gifts, transit damage is the reason to watch, since a blender cannot be the wrong size.

Holiday Returns by Generation

• Narvar found that Gen X shoppers plan to spend significantly more, return more over the holidays, and start earlier than anyone else.
• 74.5% say they’re moving up their timeline this year, and 57.9% plan to use AI to find gifts, both the highest of any bracket.
• Bracketing is generational: 51% of Gen Z bracket their purchases, compared to just 24% of Baby Boomers.
• Close to two-thirds of consumers admit to participating in at least one costly returns behavior, from wardrobing and “bracketing” to sending back different items or empty boxes.

Why it matters: Narvar found that among Gen X shoppers, 66% avoid brands that charge for returns outright, more than double the rate of 18-to-29-year-olds. 73% have delayed a purchase over refund-timing worry. A fee that looks small at checkout can cost a retailer its most engaged holiday shoppers.

Return Fees and Holiday Return Policies

• 73.6% of Loop merchants now offer exchanges and 49.2% offer Shop Now, while 65.2% charge return fees on at least some outcomes.
• Loop’s merchants offer generous decision windows, with an average of 39 days to request a refund and 41 days for an exchange.
• Among merchants using Shop Now, the average Bonus Credit incentive is $11.28.
• NRF found the top reasons retailers charge for returns are increases in the cost of operations to process returns (40%), increases in carrier shipping costs (40%), and economic uncertainty and risk of tariffs (33%).
• Shoppers notice the tightening: 50% believe return policies have gotten more restrictive in recent years.

How long do you have to return Christmas gifts?

It depends on the retailer. Loop merchants offer an average of 39 days to request a refund and 41 days for an exchange. In the UK, the law sets a floor for online orders: customers can cancel within 14 days of receiving their item and have another 14 days to return it.

How Retailers Prepare for Holiday Returns

• Retailers plan to manage holiday returns by increasing focus on third-party logistics partners (49%), hiring seasonal staff to handle returns (43%) and extending return windows (37%), per NRF and Happy Returns.
• 60% of retailers have had to choose between shipping new orders or processing returns, according to Happy Returns.
• Nearly two-thirds (64%) of merchants say updating their returns process in the next six months is a priority.
• Shoppers’ preferred drop-off points shape that planning: The UPS Store appeared as the top choice for 59% of shoppers, followed by the U.S. Postal Service (49%) and the retailer’s store (42%).
• The online Christmas shopping trends show how much of the gift volume arrives by parcel in the first place.

Holiday Return Fraud Statistics

• Retailers that track fraud noted increases in overstated quantity of returns (71%), empty box or “box of rocks” returns (65%) and decoy returns such as counterfeit items (64%), per NRF and Happy Returns.
• 85% said they are employing AI to detect or prevent return fraud.
• 93% of retailers cite fraud as a top issue, per Happy Returns.
• In the last year, 47% of shoppers returned items with the tags removed, 32% returned a worn item, and 25% returned a different item than indicated or intended.
• Just under half (45%) believe “bending the truth” is acceptable when making returns.
• Appriss Retail reported that 60% of retailers surveyed reported incidents of “wardrobing,” 55% cited cases of returning an item obtained through fraudulent or stolen tender, and 48% faced occurrences of returning stolen merchandise.
• On Loop’s platform, 11.4% of return value is flagged as high risk, with an average fraudulent return value of $120.

By the numbers: The NRF report found 9% of all returns are fraudulent, and Appriss Retail and Deloitte found fraudulent returns and claims resulted in a $103 billion loss for retailers in 2024. Longer holiday return windows give abuse more time to work, so retailers extending them have reason to tighten checks too.

Refund Deadlines Under US and UK Rules

• According to GOV.UK guidance on accepting returns, UK sellers cannot deduct any fees from their refund unless the item has been used or damaged.
• UK sellers must also refund the cost of standard delivery if the customer paid for it.
• Under the FTC’s Mail, Internet, or Telephone Order Merchandise Rule, a seller that extended its own credit must credit the customer’s account or notify the customer that the account will not be charged within one billing cycle after the order is cancelled.
• Past the repair window, UK customers have up to 6 years to make a claim for an item they’ve bought (5 years in Scotland).
• Shoppers buying gifts abroad can compare these rules with global Christmas shopping habits in other markets.

Source: FTC Business Guide to the Mail, Internet, or Telephone Order Merchandise Rule 2026, GOV.UK Accepting returns and giving refunds 2026

Conclusion

Retailers expect 17% of holiday sales to be returned, and return volume rose roughly 11% against slower order growth. Gift buyers gain from long windows and instant refunds, and retailers that refund fast and without fees keep the shoppers who now check that before buying.

For the coming season, watch refund speed, return fees, and fraud checks more than the return rate itself. The Christmas gift trends show which categories are likely to fill those return queues.